Market Intelligence US Morning Update

Goldman Sachs lowered their 2026 recession probability to 15% and maintained a 'no-hike' Fed baseline following geopolitical improvements with Iran and cooling energy prices. The firm also upgraded their 2H26 GDP growth forecast to 2%.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Goldman Sachs lowered their US recession probability forecast to 15% from 25%, citing reduced downside risks following the US-Iran agreement.
• 2.The firm maintains a baseline forecast of no Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026, citing oil price relief and likely non-voting member resistance.
• 3.GDP growth forecast for 2H26 raised to 2%, supported by real income gains from lower gas prices and AI-driven capex/wealth effects.

Table of Contents

• Market Intelligence: US Morning Update
• Looking Ahead
• Performance of Global Indices (as of June 22, 2026)
• Rating & Conviction List Changes (as of June 22, 2026)
• Today's Events (June 22, 2026)
• US Morning Call for June 22, 2026:
• Notable Research not on the Morning Call:
• TMT
• WEEKLIES
• PODCASTS
• Listening in: Webinars, Conferences & Podcasts

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