Americas Retail Supermarkets Grocery Overlap Analysis

Goldman Sachs provides a store overlap analysis and price perception review for the US grocery sector in the context of Kroger's planned increase in price investments. The report evaluates how heightened competitive activity from major retailers may impact market share across the fragmented industry.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Kroger is proactively increasing price investments to close gaps with competitors, pressuring value-focused retail peers.
• 2.Store footprint overlap analysis shows high proximity between Kroger and competitors like Dollar General, Walmart, and Aldi within a 1-mile radius.
• 3.The grocery industry remains highly fragmented, placing smaller independent grocers at higher risk in a more promotional environment.

Table of Contents

• Grocery overlap analysis
• Key takeaways
• Exhibit 1: Most retailers continue to focus on providing value to customers, while looking for ways to offset inflation
• Exhibit 2: SKU Price Variance vs. Group Average
• Exhibit 4: KR's footprint overlap vs peers
• Exhibit 3: KR's price gap vs WMT has narrowed in recent months
• Exhibit 5: Peer footprint overlap with KR
• Exhibit 6: Grocery share gains have been led by WMT and COST in recent years
• Exhibit 7: Food retail is a highly fragmented industry
• Exhibit 8: Value perception is strongest for Aldi, followed by club formats
• Exhibit 9: Price perception is strongest for Aldi, followed by discounters and club formats
• Disclosure Appendix

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