Japan Economic Flash: Naphtha-flation Are There Signs of the Overshoot Feared by the BOJ

The report examines the pass-through of crude oil prices into Japanese B2B prices, labeled 'Naphtha-flation'. It concludes that current price increases remain within forecast ranges and unlikely to cause a sustained inflation overshoot.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Price pass-through from crude oil to B2B transactions via naphtha is rapid but contained.
• 2.The risk of a significant CPI inflation overshoot remains low.

Table of Contents

• Japan Economic Flash: Naphtha-flation (2): Are There Signs of the Overshoot Feared by the BOJ?
• Exhibit 1: Price Increases Are Concentrated in the Naphtha Supply Chain
• Exhibit 2: Within the Naphtha-Related Supply Chain, Price Pass-Through Has Proceeded Rapidly
• Exhibit 3: As of May 2026, the Price Increase Rate of Naphtha-Related Items Is Largely Within Our Forecast Range
• The Japan Economics Team
• Disclosure Appendix

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