GS Basics: S&P Ex-AI, Trust Deficit, and Copper vs NDX

The market remains driven by an aggressive AI-led rally in equities, even as geopolitical tensions stall progress on Iranian oil exports. Technical indicators show elevated retail leverage, while macroeconomic signals suggest potential volatility as cross-asset relationships like Copper vs. Nasdaq break down.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Equities rally driven by AI infrastructure, while S&P ex-AI segments lag.
• 2.Increased competition in AI may paradoxically drive higher aggregate investment due to an arms-race mentality among hyperscalers.
• 3.Oil markets face a 'trust deficit' as US-Iran talks stall, complicating the pricing of Iranian supply.

Table of Contents

• Equities
• AI
• Oil
• UK
• Technicals
• Risk
• NDX vs Copper

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