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Goldman Sachs

June 18, 2026

The Future of Work: Labor Shortages, Automation and AI

Macro ThematicOtherIndustrialsInformation Technology

This report examines the impact of labor shortages, demographic shifts, and AI on the future of work. It concludes that while AI is reshaping enterprise workflows, structural labor shortages—particularly in skilled trades and technical fields—remain the primary long-term challenge.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Structural labor shortages driven by demographics are worsening despite recent cyclical loosening.
  • 2.AI is currently causing more workflow adjustment than mass job displacement.
  • 3.A 'K-shaped' labor market is emerging where demand for experienced talent is rising while entry-level job demand declines.

Table of Contents

  • The Macro Labor Backdrop
  • Labor Shortages in Blue-Collar, Skilled, and Energy / DCs Infrastructure Roles
  • AI and Job Disruption — more hype than apocalypse for now
  • AI as an ‘Up-Leveling’ force rather than a job disrupter and the importance of judgment
  • The K-Shaped Labor Market, Flexible Work, Temp Penetration, and Randstad’s Positioning
  • Disclosure Appendix

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Authors

Evan TylendaSubasini VaranasiBrian Singer, CFABrendan CorbettXavier Zhang

Securities

Randstad

Themes

Labor ShortagesGenerative AIDemographic Shift

Regions

North AmericaEuropeUnited StatesUK