France Early Thoughts on the 2027 Elections

France's 2027 presidential and legislative elections present high uncertainty due to the constitutional exit of President Macron and a polarized political landscape. The outcome will likely shape future fiscal and structural reform trajectories, with most candidates acknowledging the necessity of deficit reduction.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The 2027 French presidential election outcome remains highly uncertain as incumbent President Macron cannot run for a third consecutive term.
• 2.Rassemblement National leads in first-round polling, but the legislative outlook is complicated by potential political polarization and the 'Front Républicain'.
• 3.Despite varying policy mixes, most candidates except those on the far-left recognize the need for fiscal consolidation and deficit reduction.

Table of Contents

• An Open Race for President
• Don't Forget Parliament
• The Economics at Stake
• A Fork in the Road?

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