Focus Idea: Long ABI

Goldman Sachs initiates a long position on ABInBev (ABI), citing an inflection point in volume growth and margin expansion. The thesis is supported by strong cash flow generation and potential for significant share buybacks through 2029.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Return to volume growth in FY26, supported by US share gains and FIFA World Cup tailwinds.
• 2.Strong margin expansion driven by premiumization, volume leverage, and efficiency.
• 3.Deleveraging profile allows for increased cash returns to shareholders, with $9bn available by FY29.

Table of Contents

• Thesis:
• 1. Volume growth algorithm is sustainable beyond 2026
• 1. Robust margin outlook despite rising input cost inflation
• 1. Cash generation and balance sheet strength creates further optionality
• Thesis in Charts:
• Financials/GSe:
• Price Target Derivation:
• Key Risks:
• Recent Research:

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