Goldman Sachs
June 15, 2026
Europe Construction Heavyside Materials: CO2 Costs and Cement Prices
Sector ReportEquitiesMaterials
This report examines the drivers of European cement pricing in 2026, finding that market consolidation, volume demand, and CBAM are the primary contributors, while CO2 costs do not yet demonstrate a significant impact on price growth.
Key Takeaways
- 1.There is currently no significant relationship between CO2 costs (net short position) and cement pricing growth in Europe.
- 2.Three factors currently drive European cement pricing: market consolidation, supply/demand balance, and CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism).
- 3.CO2 pass-through is expected to become a material earnings driver only by FY2028 or later as companies exhaust excess allowances.
Table of Contents
- Europe Cement is the key pillar of heavyside growth
- What's driving Cement pricing in 2026?
- What are the drivers of forward profitability in European cement?
- Carbon cliff over the next decade
- Testing 5 drivers of 2026 cement prices
- Cement Pricing Heatmaps
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Authors
Ben Rada MartinNatasha PhillipsPatrick Creuset
Securities
HEIGHOLN.SBZU
Themes
Decarbonization and CO2 CostsMarket ConsolidationCBAM Impact
Regions
EuropeGermanyItalySpain
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