China Solar Expert Call Takeaway

China's solar installations are expected to decline through 2027 before seeing a demand inflection in 2028, driven by grid curtailment improvements. Goldman Sachs analysts maintain a preference for high-efficiency cell/module players while remaining cautious on glass and poly manufacturers.

Key Takeaways

• 1.China solar installations are projected to decrease by 26% YoY in 2026, with a continued downward trend in 2027.
• 2.Grid curtailment improvements are expected to trigger a solar demand inflection point in China from 2028 onwards.
• 3.Profitability recovery for solar value chain players is likely deferred to 2028, though a 2027 downturn may accelerate capacity consolidation.

Table of Contents

• Expert Call takeaway: Expert expects improving curtailment to drive China demand inflection in 2028
• Disclosure Appendix

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