Firms Turn To Spend On Payrolls: A Hint Of AI's Impact In The Data

Profits are successfully driving an expansion in hiring across cyclical sectors. While AI is beginning to influence industry-specific labor demand, persistent inflation driven by credit growth and fiscal policy remains a key headwind.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Profit growth is driving a recovery in hiring, with further upside potential for payroll expansion as trends lag behind 2018 levels.
• 2.Early signs suggest AI is impacting hiring patterns, with potential displacement in finance and business services, while computer-related industries increase hiring to implement AI.
• 3.Inflationary pressures persist as bank loans and federal spending accelerate, suggesting the FOMC may adopt a hawkish 'wait and see' stance.

Table of Contents

• Firms Turn To Spend On Payrolls, A Hint Of AI's Impact In The Data
• Chart 1. Railcar loadings of cyclical goods running ahead, still lags 2018
• Chart 2 Profits lead hiring
• Chart 3 Is AI hurting professional & financial services?
• Disclaimer

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