Can Trump Defy Electoral Gravity

This report analyzes the electoral outlook for the 2026 US midterms, balancing Trump's record-low approval ratings against his structural advantages in funding, judicial influence, and election-security narratives. It warns that a close election outcome could trigger significant financial market volatility.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Iran war has pushed Trump's approval ratings to near-record lows, fueling consensus expectations that Democrats will flip the House in the November midterms.
• 2.Trump retains three electoral advantages: a significant campaign fundraising edge, support from Supreme Court rulings, and a 'post-2020' election playbook emphasizing voter fraud concerns.
• 3.In the event of a close election, potential pre- and post-election uncertainty regarding results could lead to market volatility and USD weakness relative to safe-haven assets like gold.

Table of Contents

• Key takeaways
• Trump’s Strait of Hormuz (SoH) reopening headache
• Consumer angst is rising
• Not just gasoline: Electri-flation is stoking rageflation
• Data centres: Bipartisan ire – the gathering storm
• Counter view: The Republican faithful are sticking with Trump
• Establishment Dems are ‘out of touch’ too
• 2026: More like 2018 or 2022?
• Most Trump 2.0 policies still have majority support
• 2026: A shrinking battleground also plays a part
• Three electoral aces still up Trump’s sleeve
• Electoral ace #1: Follow the money (I)
• Electoral ace #1: Follow the money (II)
• Electoral ace #2 (I): Supreme Court's gift to Republicans
• Electoral ace #2 (II): Upcoming rulings – More gifts ahead
• Electoral ace #2 (III): Mail-in ballots - the devil in the details
• Electoral ace #3: Trump’s post-2020 election playbook (I)
• Electoral ace #3: Post-2020 election playbook (III) – Primary test run
• Top investor takeaways