US Economic Notes

The April jobs report confirms labor market stability, allowing the Fed to focus on rising inflation risks expected in upcoming CPI/PPI data. 2026 GDP growth forecasts were slightly downgraded to 2.3% due to the impact of higher energy costs.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The April jobs report showed a stable labor market with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, shifting the Fed's primary focus toward rising inflation risks.
• 2.Deutsche Bank forecasts an increase in both headline and core CPI year-over-year rates for April, driven by gas prices, apparel tariffs, and used car prices.
• 3.2026 real GDP growth forecast was lowered to 2.3% due to higher oil price drags on consumer spending, though partially offset by AI-driven capex.

Table of Contents

• Post CPI Conference Call
• Commentary for Monday
• Appendix 1
• Analyst Certification
• Important Disclosures
• Additional Information
• International Production Locations

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