Taking Stock of the Rally

The S&P 500 has rallied 16% to return to its long-term trend, supported by record earnings and de-escalating geopolitical fears. While investor positioning has reached a three-month high, it remains neutral, suggesting a continued but slower 'grind higher' for equities.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The S&P 500 has rallied 16% since late March, returning to the bottom of its medium-term trend channel.
• 2.Equity positioning has risen to a 3-month high of 0.31sd (60th percentile) but remains neutral rather than elevated.
• 3.Current positioning levels suggest a potential 'grind higher' in markets, with historical monthly forward returns between 1.5% and 2.5%.

Table of Contents

• Charts of the week
• Positioning and flows detail
• DB S&P 500 Forecasts
• Our Recent Publications
• Consolidated Equity Positioning
• Sector Positioning
• vFLARE: Volatility-Sensitive Systematic Strategies
• Investor Sentiment
• Equity Short Interest
• Option Metrics
• S&P 500 Options: Vol, Skew, Correlation
• Equity funds beta to the S&P 500
• Cross-Asset Fund Flows
• Equity Fund Flows
• Bond Fund Flows
• Cross-Asset Futures Positioning
• Equity Futures Positioning
• Bond Futures Positioning
• FX Futures Positioning
• Commodity Futures Positioning
• Buybacks Tracker
• Appendix

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