Deutsche Bank
May 13, 2026
Shockwaves from Tehran: The Iran War and the Future of European Security
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The Iran war and US pivot under the Trump administration are forcing Europe to pursue strategic autonomy amidst severe defense resource and funding gaps. The diversion of weapons systems to the Middle East threatens the long-term sustainability of support for Ukraine and deterrence of Russia.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Iran war is stretching European security resources beyond planned capacities, requiring simultaneous management of Ukraine, Russia deterrence, and the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2.Supply chain constraints in US air defense (Patriot missiles) and cruise missiles (Tomahawks) are creating a readiness gap for European defense and Ukraine support.
- 3.The Trump administration's pressure on burden-sharing and troop drawdowns in Germany is straining the US-Europe security and trade relationship.
Table of Contents
- After the Acute Iran Crisis Ends
- Atlantic Fracture?
- How the Middle East crisis impacts the Russia-Ukraine calculus
- Does Europe have the resources to meet the moment?
- Appendix 1
- Additional Information
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Authors
Helen Belopolsky
Securities
Pac-3 Patriot missilesTomahawk cruise missiles
Themes
European Strategic AutonomyTransatlantic Security RiftDefense Resource Depletion
Regions
EuropeMiddle EastNorth AmericaIranUnited StatesGermany