Gulf Shipping Tracker and Global Response

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to 4% of pre-war levels as the US blockade and regional conflict intensify. While Saudi exports via Yanbu provide a partial buffer, global energy prices and inflation expectations are rising sharply.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Tanker activity exiting the Strait of Hormuz has come to a virtual standstill, averaging only 4% of pre-war levels.
• 2.The US blockade of Iranian ports is in full force, estimated to have cost Iran $4.8bn in lost oil revenues as of May 1st.
• 3.Saudi Arabia has successfully rerouted significant crude exports through Yanbu (~3.7 mb/d), though this route remains at risk from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

Table of Contents

• Notable updates on the US/Iran conflict and Gulf shipping tanker/oil activity
• Notable updates & global response
• Strait of Hormuz crossings remain significantly below pre-conflict levels
• Yanbu crude oil export loadings robust, but risk remains
• The U.S. Blockade in practice
• Stranded Tankers in the Persian Gulf
• Persian Gulf and Red Sea
• Appendix: Exposures and Economic Indicators
• Oil
• Shipping Rates (Spot TCE)
• Natural Gas and LNG
• Coal, Carbon, Gasoline / Petrol and Heating Oil
• Jet Fuel
• Fertiliser & Agriculture
• Metals
• Equities
• Inflation Rate Expectations
• Interest Rate Expectations

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