Gulf petroleum liquid exports remain stable at 1.14 mmb/d despite increased transit reports, with Iraq and the UAE filling the gap left by restricted Iranian flows. US and Chinese supply adjustments are currently capping front-month crude prices below $120/bbl.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Despite reports of increased transits, the 7-day average rate of petroleum liquids export from the Strait of Hormuz remains stable at 1.14 mmb/d.
- 2.The composition of Gulf exports is shifting, with non-Iranian shares (specifically Iraq and UAE) increasing in May while Saudi transits through the Strait are absent.
- 3.Supply accommodation from the US (increased net product exports) and China (reduced refinery runs) is helping keep crude prices below $120/bbl.
Table of Contents
- Gulf liquids exports stable
- Strait transits not picking up materially
- Uncertain effect of blockade
- Impact of US supply accommodation shifts toward crude
- Analyst Certification
- Important Disclosures
- Additional Information
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Authors
Michael Hsueh
Securities
Crude OilBasrah Crude
Themes
Geopolitical Supply DisruptionsNaval Blockades and Sanctions EnforcementInventory and SPR Strategy
Regions
Middle EastNorth AmericaAsia PacificIranIraqUnited Arab Emirates