Gulf Liquids Exports Stable

Gulf petroleum liquids exports are currently stable at approximately 1.14 mmb/d despite geopolitical tensions and a US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Supply shifts toward Iraq and the UAE, coupled with US/China market accommodations, are maintaining crude prices below $120/bbl.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Despite reports of increased transits in the Strait of Hormuz, average petroleum liquids exports remain stable.
• 2.The composition of Gulf exports has shifted, with Iraq and the UAE taking larger shares as non-Iranian transits rise relative to Iranian ones.
• 3.Supply-demand accommodations by the US (reduced imports, increased exports) and China (reduced refinery runs) are keeping crude prices below the $120/bbl threshold.

Table of Contents

• Gulf liquids exports stable
• Strait transits not picking up materially
• Uncertain effect of blockade
• Impact of US supply accommodation shifts toward crude
• Appendix 1
• Additional Information

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