From Barrel to Bond

Global bond yields are currently tracking oil prices with high correlation due to the ongoing war, but structural bearishness on duration remains the bank's core view.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Bond yields are currently being driven primarily by oil prices, showing a very tight correlation since the start of the war.
• 2.The recent rally in bonds is consistent with the decline in energy prices, suggesting the rates market is behaving logically relative to oil.
• 3.Post-war structural drivers including Fed pricing, inflation risks, and tech capex will likely replace oil as the primary yield catalysts.

Table of Contents

• Thematic Research
• Appendix 1
• Important Disclosures
• Analyst Certification
• Additional Information
• International Production Locations

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