Early Morning Reid

Global markets are wrestling with a '1999 meets 1990' scenario where AI optimism drives equity records while Middle East conflict pushes oil prices higher. Deutsche Bank warns the ultra-low default regime is over, with spec-grade defaults now exceeding long-term medians.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Global markets are balancing '1999' AI exuberance with '1990' geopolitical disruption from Middle East conflicts.
• 2.The era of ultra-low credit defaults has ended, with speculative-grade defaults in the US (4%) and Europe (4.6%) now above 20-year medians.
• 3.US equities (S&P 500 and NASDAQ) continue to reach record highs despite rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions.

Table of Contents

• Macro Strategy
• Key Market Data
• Other Market Data
• Topical Deutsche Bank publications
• Appendix 1
• Analyst Certification
• Important Disclosures
• Additional Information
• International Production Locations