Early Morning Reid

Deutsche Bank's daily note highlights the tension between AI-driven equity records and geopolitical risks in Iran that threaten to spike oil prices. The bank maintains a constructive equity outlook (S&P 500 at 8000) while forecasting higher yields and potential stagflationary shocks if energy corridors remain closed.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Deutsche Bank's new World Outlook, '1999 meets 1990', explores the tension between AI-driven optimism (1999) and disruptive geopolitical conflicts (1990).
• 2.A US-Iran deal regarding the Strait of Hormuz is the baseline, but failure could see Brent crude spike to $150/bbl and trigger a European recession.
• 3.The AI spending boom is entering a capital-raising phase, highlighted by Alphabet's planned $80bn equity offering.

Table of Contents

• Key Market Data
• Sacreblue!
• Other Market Data
• Key Economic Data
• Topical Deutsche Bank publications
• Appendix 1
• Analyst Certification
• Important Disclosures
• Additional Information
• International Production Locations