Deutsche Bank
June 4, 2026
Defaults Dispersion and Demanding Rates
Macro ThematicRates CreditMacro Economic IndicatorsInformation TechnologyFinancials
Deutsche Bank warns that the era of ultra-low defaults has ended, with speculative-grade default rates in the US and Europe remaining significantly above historical medians.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The era of ultra-low default rates has ended, and elevated levels are expected to persist for the next several years.
- 2.US and European speculative-grade default rates remain well above their 20-year medians despite buoyant markets.
- 3.The US software sector faces specific risks from AI disruption, which could impact CLO portfolios and private credit.
Table of Contents
- Thematic Research
- Appendix 1
- Analyst Certification
- Additional Information
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Authors
Jim ReidSteve CaprioHenry AllenRaj Bhattacharyya
Securities
US Speculative-Grade CreditEuropean Speculative-Grade Credit
Themes
The end of the ultra-low default eraAI disruption in software creditCredit Dispersion
Regions
EuropeNorth AmericaUnited States