Xi-Trump Meeting Preview

The upcoming Xi-Trump meeting in Beijing is expected to be a symbolic event with no major breakthroughs, as both leaders face domestic and legal constraints. Tensions over Taiwan and the war in Iran will likely persist despite potential agreements on agricultural purchases.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The May 14-15 Xi-Trump meeting is unlikely to result in major breakthroughs or 'game changers' in US-China relations.
• 2.Taiwan remains the primary 'red line' and greatest risk factor for China, with possible pressure on Trump to change official US policy language.
• 3.The US tariff strategy is currently constrained by Supreme Court rulings against IEEPA, limiting Trump's ability to escalate the trade war immediately.

Table of Contents

• Xi-Trump meeting preview: We expect no game changers
• Long-term US tariff framework is still in progress
• Key events in US-China relations under Trump’s second presidency
• Stability and Taiwan key priorities for China
• US import-dependency is going nowhere, yet the composition of trade is evolving
• Expect little change to China's position on Iran
• AI-demand boosts US imports irrespective of tariffs
• China has room to increase soybean purchases next winter
• Republicans' odds of winning Midterms and Trump's approval rating diverging in May
• Disclosures

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