Brief Inflation Strategy Update

The report advises against shorting inflation, noting that current market pricing for inflation swaps does not align with expected headline and core inflation levels in Q3.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Going short inflation appears hasty given current market levels and inflation outlook.
• 2.Headline inflation is expected to run at 2.9-3.0% YoY from June to September with services driving core inflation.
• 3.Technicals, such as declining linker supply in summer and index extension, suggest caution on short positions.

Table of Contents

• Brief inflation strategy update
• Recent publications
• Upcoming data highlights
• EUR Rates Dashboard
• USD Rates Dashboard
• Inflation Research advanced tools
• Red Mount Analytics

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