Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank
May 28, 2026
Bouncing
Rates StrategyRates Govt BondsMacro Economic IndicatorsOther
Eurozone inflation is expected to see a technical rebound in May, with core HICP rising to 2.57% due to tourism base effects and calendar shifts. Analysts anticipate that second-round effects from Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions will only emerge later in the year.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Eurozone core HICP is expected to bounce back from 2.20% to 2.57% in May, primarily due to base effects in tourism services.
- 2.Second-round inflationary effects from the conflict in Iran are not anticipated to manifest in HICP data until Q3 2026 at the earliest.
- 3.Belgium's early inflation data may be an outlier due to specific energy contract accounting (Statbel), leading to higher volatility than the Eurozone average.
Table of Contents
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Authors
Matthias LoiseAlex LiJean-François PerrinGuillaume MartinRiccardo Lamia
Securities
BTP 3.15% 06/31T WI 05/3320Y PGBEURUSD
Themes
Technical Inflation ReboundsSecond-round effects of geopolitical shocksMarket Relative Value
Regions
EuropeNorth AmericaMiddle EastBelgiumIranUnited States