US May CPI: Little Sign Of Pass-Through In Core

The report provides an analysis of the May 2026 US CPI data, noting that core inflation surprised to the downside. It highlights a lack of significant pass-through from energy prices to core goods, suggesting the Fed will likely maintain its current policy stance.

Key Takeaways

• 1.US headline CPI reached 4.25% YoY in May, while core inflation MoM came in at 0.21%.
• 2.Core goods show limited evidence of pass-through from higher energy prices, despite headline CPI increases.
• 3.The authors expect the Fed to remain on hold, viewing the core inflation metrics as more important than the volatile headline CPI.

Table of Contents

• US May CPI: little sign of pass-through in core
• Today's CPI
• Big picture
• Services
• Core goods
• Food
• Energy
• Implications for PCE and the Fed
• Detailed numbers for May 2026
• Inflation Research advanced tools

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