US Macro Weekly

This report provides a US macroeconomic outlook, projecting steady but slowing growth through 2026. The analyst maintains a base case for an extended Fed hold, albeit with increased risks of rate hikes due to inflation stickiness and geopolitical headwinds.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Fed is expected to hold rates through end-2026, though persistent sticky inflation and potential rate hikes are considered a 'realistic possibility' due to geopolitical risks.
• 2.Jobs data remains a primary focus, with NFP expected to step down to +105k in June while the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3%.
• 3.The US economy shows resilience despite regional instability, with investment in AI categories driving growth expectations for Q226.

Table of Contents

• Week ahead
• Week in review
• US Economic Outlook
• US Macro Weekly: Economic Calendar
• US Macro Weekly: Economic Calendar (extended)
• Week(s) ahead
• Data Review
• Fed
• Washington DC
• Markets
• US Dashboards
• US Inflation Forecast
• Macro Research advanced tools

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