Emerging Market Weekly Pulse

The report highlights market caution driven by geopolitical tensions, potential FOMC policy volatility, and a rotation out of high-growth tech stocks. It provides tactical updates across EM regions, favoring relative value strategies amid an uncertain global macro landscape.

Key Takeaways

• 1.US-Iran tensions and tech sector sentiment rotation are primary market drivers.
• 2.FOMC minutes for the June meeting are anticipated as a trigger for renewed volatility.
• 3.Economic slowdown in China with moderated Q2 GDP growth expected at 4.6%.

Table of Contents

• Overview
• Main strategies
• Performance of the main EM asset classes
• EMEA: no hawks
• Poland: rate status quo expected
• Hungary: lower inflation confirms the NBH’s dovish bias
• Asia: fragile calm
• Asia strategy: fragile calm
• China: grappling with divergence as June data looms
• Korea: eyes on the BOK's July rate decision
• Malaysia: BNM not to flinch in the face of the weaker MYR
• Latam: a challenging chapter in Mexico’s story
• Mexico: the USMCA becomes subject to annual review
• Trade ideas
• Interest rates: what's priced in vs our forecasts
• FX: what's priced in vs our forecasts
• CACIB EM portfolio flow indexes
• Calendar
• Charting the past three months...and the past seven days
• Economic forecasts
• Exchange rate forecasts
• Policy rate forecasts
• Emerging Markets Research advanced tools

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