China Q2 And June Macro Data Preview

The Chinese economy is expected to show moderated real GDP growth of 4.6% in Q2, characterized by a stark divide between strong high-tech exports and weak domestic demand.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Chinese economic growth in Q2 is expected to soften to 4.6% YoY, though nominal growth will rise due to a positive GDP deflator.
• 2.A pronounced economic divergence exists between strong high-tech/AI-related exports and sluggish domestic/mid-stream sectors.
• 3.June trade data is expected to show continued rapid growth, with the trade surplus widening to USD 131.6bn.

Table of Contents

• Weaker growth in Q2 and broad divergence
• Mixed June data; some sequential improvement
• June/Q2 macro data preview
• NBS PMIs and high-frequency indicators in June
• IP growth still outpacing retail sales and FAI
• Likely continued rapid trade growth in June
• PPI inflation likely rose further while CPI moderated
• Money and credit growth could further edge down

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