US Fed: Prepared to Hike, With or Without Warsh

The US Fed held rates steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who is reducing forward guidance. Despite this, the majority of the FOMC signaled a potential rate hike by year-end.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, but the new Chair, Kevin Warsh, signaled a move toward more succinct communication.
• 2.Nine of 18 FOMC members penciled in a rate hike to 3.75-4.00% by year-end, signaling a hawkish shift.
• 3.Berenberg forecasts a GDP slowdown in H2 2026, implying the Fed may not need to follow through with the projected hike.

Table of Contents

• US FED: PREPARED TO HIKE, WITH OR WITHOUT WARSH
• Berenberg Macro View

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