US Economic Weekly

While supply-side pressures echo 2022, structural differences in demand and labor markets suggest a different inflation trajectory. BofA expects the Fed to keep rates on hold throughout 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The current economic environment shares supply-side similarities with 2022, but lacks the same demand-side pressures, fiscal stimulus, and labor market overheating, making a return to 9% inflation unlikely.
• 2.BofA no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026, pushing their forecast for cuts out to the second half of 2027.

Table of Contents

• Shades of 2022 but not a repeat
• The week ahead: Focus on inflation
• CPI preview: A normalization after the rent payback in Apr
• Tariffs: 301 is the new 122
• USMCA: delayed, not dissolved
• First comes energy then comes pass-through inflation
• Supply chain pressures: echoes of 2022
• But demand, labor and fiscal look very different today
• US GDP tracking
• Data in the past week
• Data in the week ahead
• Federal Reserve Speakers
• Weekly spending update
• Core views
• Economic forecast summary
• Rates and dollar forecasts
• Rolling calendar of business indicators
• CPI and PCE Forecast tables
• Federal Reserve Balance Sheet