US Economic Weekly: June FOMC Preview

We expect the FOMC to hold rates steady at 3.5-3.75% and remove the easing bias from its statement. Recent data flows suggest higher inflation and labor resilience, supporting a hawkish shift in the SEP with no rate cuts expected in 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.We expect the FOMC to keep the policy rate at 3.5-3.75% in June and remove the easing bias from its statement.
• 2.The SEP should show higher inflation, a lower u-rate and no cuts this year.
• 3.Fed Chair Warsh is expected to lean dovish in the press conference but the data flow precludes near-term cuts.

Table of Contents

• June FOMC preview: park the bus
• The week ahead: Focus on the Fed and retail sales
• Retail sales preview: May-be we can keep spending
• CPI & PPI review: mixed messages but details = hot PCE
• Statement: no defense for easing bias
• SEP: hawks on the offensive
• Dots: moving up the field
• Macro projections: upsets unlikely
• Press conference: Warsh substitution a game changer?
• US GDP tracking
• Data in the past week
• Data in the week ahead
• Federal Reserve Speakers
• Weekly spending update
• Core views
• Economic forecast summary
• Rates and dollar forecasts
• Rolling calendar of business indicators
• CPI and PCE Forecast tables
• Federal Reserve Balance Sheet