Trading Catalysts: Health Care and CPI in Focus

BofA's weekly report focuses on upcoming CPI data and the Health Care Conference, while notably pushing Fed rate cut expectations out to late 2027. Despite macro risks, equities continue to rally, driven by large-cap ETF inflows and AI momentum.

Key Takeaways

• 1.BofA has shifted its Federal Reserve rate cut forecast significantly, pushing the expected easing from late 2026 to 2H 2027.
• 2.Strategists favor Small-and-Mid-Cap (SMID) health care stocks over large-caps due to innovation and M&A potential, following the BofA Health Care Conference.
• 3.April CPI is expected to be elevated at 3.7% y/y, primarily driven by rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict.

Table of Contents

• Health care in focus; CPI and retail sales
• US Econ: CPI and retail sales; Fed cuts pushed to 2027
• Eq. Strategy: Health Care in focus (BofA Conf); SMID>large
• Record US equity ETF inflows; derivatives favor convexity
• BofA baskets
• US Econ: Focus on CPI and retail sales
• Derivs: Own wings with S&P performing like roaring 20s/dotcom 90s
• Data in the week ahead
• Companies reporting this week
• Conference calls

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