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Bank of America

May 22, 2026

The Flow Show Ground Control to Major TAM

Weekly UpdateEquitiesRates Govt BondsRates CreditInformation TechnologyFinancials

BofA's Bull & Bear Indicator has hit a 8.0 'sell' threshold, signaling extreme bullishness and potential for a near-term correction in risk assets. Market concentration in AI-linked stocks has reached historic bubble proportions while EM currencies show increasing signs of stress.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator has reached 8.0, triggering a contrarian sell signal for risk assets.
  • 2.Market concentration in the 'AI Big 10' has reached ~48%, surpassing historical levels seen in the 1920s, Nifty 50, and the TMT bubble.
  • 3.Emerging Market currencies (INR, IDR) are reaching record lows, signaling potential risk-off shifts as the global cost of capital rises.

Table of Contents

  • Scores on the Doors
  • The Biggest Picture
  • The Price is Right
  • Tale of the Tape
  • Weekly Flows
  • Flows to Know
  • BofA Private Clients
  • BofA Bull & Bear Indicator
  • A Short History of IPOs
  • Wealth-Price spiral not Wage-Price spiral
  • London client feedback
  • Asset Class Flows
  • Fixed Income Flows
  • Equity Flows
  • BofA private client flows & allocations
  • The Asset Class Quilt of Total Returns
  • BofA Rules & Tools
  • BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (B&B)
  • 2026 Cross-Asset Winners & Losers
  • Acronyms
  • Disclosures

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Authors

Michael HartnettAnya ShelekhinMyung-jee JungJessica Guo

Securities

SPXUS 10-Year TreasuryBABABTC

Themes

Contrarian Sell SignalsMarket Concentration & BubblesEM FragilityWealth-Price Spiral

Regions

GlobalNorth AmericaEuropeUnited StatesChinaIndia