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May 20, 2026

Morning Market Tidbits: Tariff Refund Tap Starts To Flow

Daily UpdateMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsEnergy

Tariff refunds to importers are flowing faster than expected, totaling $13bn so far, which may act as a modest disinflationary force. Meanwhile, US 2Q GDP tracking remains steady at 2.6% q/q saar.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Tariff refunds are being issued faster than anticipated, creating upside risks to the near-term US deficit.
  • 2.These refunds may act as a disinflationary force by helping importers offset high energy and shipping costs.
  • 3.The market focus for the day is on the FOMC minutes, which are expected to maintain a hawkish stance.

Table of Contents

  • Key takeaways
  • What Matters Today: Tariff refunds have started to flow back to importers
  • Refunds are flowing out fast
  • And will provide another buffer to gas prices
  • US GDP tracking
  • Today's economic calendar
  • Important Disclosures
  • Other Important Disclosures
  • General Investment Related Disclosures
  • Copyright and General Information
  • Research Analysts

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Authors

Stephen JuneauAditya BhaveShruti MishraMatthew Yep

Themes

Tariff Refund LiquidityUS GDP TrackingMonetary Policy Hawkishness

Regions

North AmericaUnited States