BofA reports the US vacancy-to-unemployment ratio has crossed 1.0 for the first time in a year, suggesting labor market firming. Meanwhile, 2Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 2.7%.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The US vacancy-to-unemployment (V/U) ratio rose above 1.0 for the first time since June 2025, reaching 1.03.
- 2.While the labor market shows signs of firming, BofA economists believe it remains far from inflationary or overheated levels.
- 3.BofA's US 2Q GDP tracking estimate remains steady at 2.7% q/q saar following latest construction spending data.
Table of Contents
- Key takeaways
- What Matters Today: For the first time since Jun '25, there are more vacancies than unemployed workers
- V/U jumped above 1.0 for the first time since Jun '25
- Labor market likely firming, but still far from hot
- US GDP Tracking
- Today's economic calendar
- Disclosures
- Research Analysts
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Authors
Shruti MishraAditya BhaveStephen Juneau
Securities
S&P Global US services PMIISM Services
Themes
Labor Market Slack vs. TighteningReal-time GDP Tracking
Regions
North AmericaUnited States