Morning Market Tidbits

BofA research highlights that a majority of investors surveyed see a lower threshold for Fed rate hikes than the bank's economists, who require core PCE at 3.5% and unemployment below 4%.

Key Takeaways

• 1.More than half of surveyed investors believe the conditions for a Fed rate hike have either already been met or would be met if core inflation rises, regardless of labor market strength.
• 2.BofA economists maintain a higher bar for hikes, forecasting they would only be in play if core PCE reaches 3.5% y/y and the unemployment rate falls to 4.0% or lower.
• 3.US 2Q GDP tracking remains steady at 2.6% q/q saar following recent industrial production data.

Table of Contents

• Key takeaways
• What Matters Today: Respondents are split on the minimal conditions for a Fed hike
• Hawkish sentiment
• US GDP tracking
• Today's economic calendar
• Disclosures
• Research Analysts

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