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June 4, 2026

Mexico Stability Holds Growth Lags

Macro ThematicMacro Economic IndicatorsFXRates Govt BondsOther

Mexico maintains strong macro stability and small deficits, but faces a structural 'productivity crisis' that has stunted growth.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Macro stability remains a key asset with no clear imbalances, though growth has been persistently weak due to productivity constraints.
  • 2.The current administration has prioritized growth, but if weakness persists, it could lead to fiscal imbalances over time.
  • 3.Mexico faces a structural productivity crisis, with total factor productivity declining significantly since 2018 relative to the US.

Table of Contents

  • Key takeaways
  • Mexico – Stability holds, growth lags
  • The growth challenge
  • Stability is an asset
  • Special Disclosures
  • Disclosures
  • Research Analysts

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Authors

Carlos CapistranDavid HaunerClaudio Irigoyen

Securities

USDMXNMexico Sovereign Debt

Themes

Productivity CrisisInvestment Grade RiskUSMCA Review

Regions

Latin AmericaNorth AmericaMexicoUnited StatesBrazil