London Small Talks: What Did We Learn For EM

This report summarizes findings from the BofA London Small Talks Symposium, covering economic themes across CEE, Sub-Saharan Africa, and MENA. Key focus areas include fiscal policy shifts, ERM2 adoption, debt sustainability frameworks, and the regional impact of the Iran war.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Hungary sentiment is constructive on EUR commitment; Romania faces 2027/28 fiscal challenges; Czechia faces hawkish rate pressure due to fiscal/energy factors.
• 2.Sub-Saharan Africa credit concerns remain, particularly in Senegal, Mozambique, and Gabon; Türkiye reserve pressures are currently viewed as manageable.

Table of Contents

• Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa
• Czechia: fiscal outlook, energy explain hawkish CNB shift
• Hungary: ERM2 reinforce constructive sentiment
• Ukraine: hopeful progress
• South Africa: tight monetary policy and improving fiscal credibility
• Sub-Saharan Africa
• Nigeria: tight policy, strong buffers, and rising borrowings
• Ghana: gold boosted recovery, reform focused future
• Türkiye: Geopolitics delays disinflation, FX stability holds
• Georgia: strong fundamentals, but oil shock complicates the outlook
• Middle East – North Africa (MENA): Iran war tremors

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