Global Economic Weekly Less Oil Dependent but More Price Sensitive

The report analyzes why Europe remains more vulnerable to oil shocks than the US despite lower energy intensity, while weighing stagflation risks in the US and surplus-driven trade dynamics in China.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Europe is twice as sensitive to oil shocks as the US because it is a net energy importer with double the energy expenditure as a share of GDP.
• 2.The US economy is caught between 'stagflation' and 'reflation' narratives, with high inflation offset by resilient spending and corporate earnings.
• 3.China-EU trade imbalances are driven by excess capacity ('vent-for-surplus') in China rather than trade rerouting from US tariffs.

Table of Contents

• Global Letter
• US
• Europe
• UK
• China
• Emerging EMEA
• Latin America
• Key forecasts
• Detailed forecasts
• Research Analysts

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