Europe's Energy Trilemma and the Role of Norway

Norway is now Europe's largest gas supplier (>25% share) and a leader in carbon storage and EV adoption, crucial for the region's energy security and transition. While Norwegian E&Ps offer clean commodity exposure, analysts warn that some share prices, particularly Aker BP, already discount very high long-term oil prices.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Norway has become Europe's largest gas supplier, accounting for over 25% of total consumption since 2022.
• 2.Low European gas storage levels (36% full) pose significant upside risks to TTF gas prices going into the winter.
• 3.Norway leads global EV penetration with electric vehicles making up 97% of new car sales in 2025.

Table of Contents

• Key takeaways
• Norway: Europe's answer to the Energy Trilemma?
• Low gas storage: More competition for LNG = TTF upside
• Norway E&P share prices at strip or above
• BofA Norway Field Trip
• Europe's #1 source of natural gas
• European gas storage needs re-filling
• European gas prices with upside risks
• Northern Lights: Europe's #1 carbon sink
• Norway: Global #1 spot in EV penetration
• This week: Reshuffling licences and risks?
• Norway's E&Ps: Pricing at or above strip
• Appendix: Norway vs. UK North Sea
• European Big Oil resilience benchmarking
• Big Oil balance sheet benchmarking
• So what's priced in?
• Big Oil earnings and cash flow heatmap
• Oil and gas macro – what's new?
• Refining macro
• Sector valuation in context
• Share price performance benchmarking

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