Consumer Finance Tidbits Issue 26-13

This report highlights a widening economic divide (K-shaped economy) impacting lower-income consumers, alongside an analysis of rising default indicators and intense competition in the mortgage sector.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The US economy is exhibiting an increasingly 'K-shaped' recovery, with lower-income consumers facing financial insecurity due to inflation despite low unemployment.
• 2.The Upstart Macro Index (UMI) has risen to 1.46, suggesting macro-driven default rates are 46% above the long-run average.
• 3.Large banks like Chase are leveraging rewards programs to compete in the mortgage market, which is expected to pressure margins for originators like Rocket Companies (RKT).

Table of Contents

• Economy only getting more K-shaped
• UPST April UMI
• Expert call on demand trends in premium cards on 6/1
• Chase adds rewards for new mortgage apps
• SOFIUSD available on app
• Consumer finance dashboard
• EPS forecasts vs consensus
• Relative valuation, ratings, and price objectives
• Price objective basis & risk
• Analyst Certification
• Special Disclosures
• Disclosures

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial