AI Matters: A Large Productivity Take-Off is Ahead

While AI's current impact on aggregate productivity is small (0.1% TFP), its potential to improve the productivity of innovation could lift global GDP growth by 1% annually over the next decade.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Macro productivity gains from AI are currently lagging micro gains due to slow adoption and skills gaps.
• 2.AI's potential aggregate productivity impact is up to 10x larger than current estimates.
• 3.AI could lift global growth by 1% annually over the next decade, raising it from 3.5% to 4.5%.

Table of Contents

• Did you know?
• AI is about to lift macro productivity
• AI and productivity: Big micro, small macro—for now
• AI is different: breadth and the productivity of innovation
• Permanent shifts in growth and the impact on r*
• From a one-off to permanently more growth
• AI likely pushes r* higher for fast adopters (US/China)
• Research Analysts

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