Pacific Economic Outlook

ANZ Research has lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Papua New Guinea to 4.9%, citing the negative impact of an expected El Niño event on agriculture and a delay in the Papua LNG project. Despite these headwinds, the economy is expected to avoid recession and rebound in 2027.

Key Takeaways

• 1.ANZ has downgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Papua New Guinea from 5.8% to 4.9%.
• 2.A strong El Niño event is expected to depress agricultural output and domestic demand, while the delay of the Papua LNG project to 2027 reduces near-term construction growth.
• 3.Despite the downward revision, a full recession is not expected for 2026, with growth likely rebounding to 8.4% in 2027.

Table of Contents

• El Niño expected to weigh on PNG growth in 2026
• Agriculture output to moderate
• Manufacturing and wholesale & retail trade likely to soften
• Unlike 2015, mining output is expected to continue momentum
• Construction uplift dialled down
• Risks to growth
• Conclusion

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial