Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Research Hub

Recent research concerning Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) reflects a recalibration of macroeconomic projections driven by supply-side cost pressures and shifting trade dynamics. Analysts have revised 2026 PPI and GDP deflator forecasts upward, citing gains in coal and metals prices as key inflationary contributors. Despite these production-side increases, the bank maintains a stable consumer inflation outlook, noting that soft household demand continues to insulate the broader economy from energy-related price shocks. Consequently, ANZ has adjusted its 2026 nominal GDP growth forecast to 6.3%. Meanwhile, the bank’s analysis of trade data highlights a divergence in Chinese export and import performance, characterized by surges in high-tech values contrasted with weakening commodity volumes. Looking forward, the research emphasizes that while trade with the U.S. is experiencing a recovery, potential regulatory shifts within the EU regarding supply chain diversification pose significant risks to one-quarter of China's existing trade surplus.