China PPI Forecast Revised Up

ANZ Research has increased its 2026 China PPI forecast to 2.0% citing higher coal prices and supply-side pressures. The CPI forecast remains steady at 1.2% as weak household demand limits the pass-through of energy costs.

Key Takeaways

• 1.ANZ has upwardly revised its 2026 China PPI forecast to 2.0% (from 0.8%) due to firmer coal prices and global supply-side tightening.
• 2.China's 2026 nominal GDP growth is projected to rise to 6.3%, up from 4.0% in 2025, driven by an upward revision to the GDP deflator forecast.
• 3.Headline CPI remains stable at a forecast of 1.2%, as limited passthrough from upstream energy costs to consumer prices persists due to weak domestic household demand.

Table of Contents

• China: PPI forecast revised up
• Highlights of the data
• Forecast updates

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