Weekly Fuel Market Watch

This report provides a weekly diagnostic of the factors influencing New Zealand fuel prices, tracking global indices, refining margins, and domestic consumption patterns.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Fuel prices in New Zealand are influenced by a complex mix of global crude benchmarks, refining margins, freight costs, and the NZD exchange rate.
• 2.The closure of the Marsden Point refinery in 2022 marked a shift to New Zealand importing refined fuels rather than a mix of crude and product.

Table of Contents

• Introduction
• ANZ card spending at fuel stations
• National weekly average price paid by consumers as of last Friday
• Crude prices expressed in NZD
• Singapore refined fuel prices expressed in NZD (Petrol)
• Singapore refined fuel prices expressed in NZD (Diesel)
• Crack spreads
• Refining margins
• Spot-front spread
• Brent futures curve – the market’s take
• Brent futures – The evolving shape of the curve
• New Zealand’s fuel supply (days of cover)
• Strait of Hormuz vessel crossings
• Freight costs
• Breaking down the price Kiwis pay at the pump (petrol)
• Breaking down the price Kiwis pay at the pump (diesel)
• The New Zealand dollar
• OPEC estimated monthly production
• Monthly fuel imports by country (main suppliers)
• Fuel imports by country of origin (historical)
• Fuel supply by method
• Fuel demand by main sector (time series)
• Diesel and petrol end use in “normal times”
• Diesel end use: Breakdown of non-road transport in “normal times”
• Petrol end use: Breakdown of non-road transport in “normal times”

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