Asia Macro Weekly

ANZ expects a severe El Niño event in 2026-27 to heighten regional drought risks, primarily threatening food-price stability. While some nations have improved food buffers, elevated inflation remains a key risk for central bank policy across Asia.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The 2026-27 El Niño, potentially amplified by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, poses significant climate risks to agricultural production in South and Southeast Asia.
• 2.The primary macro-economic risk for Asia is renewed food inflation, which may force central banks to maintain hawkish stances for longer.
• 3.Vulnerability to the weather shock varies; Thailand and Vietnam hold strong food-security buffers, whereas the Philippines remains highly exposed due to rice import reliance.

Table of Contents

• Key view
• Upcoming events and data
• Data calendar
• Forecasts
• Scheduled central bank meeting dates in 2026
• Recent insights
• Acronyms and abbreviations
• Contacts
• Important Notice

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