Global Oil Market Tracker

This report tracks the global oil market status amidst ongoing inventory depletion and geopolitical instability in the Persian Gulf. It emphasizes that while demand recovery is anticipated for 2026, transit lags and investor bearishness currently dominate the market outlook.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Global oil demand is projected to contract by 1.5mb/d in 2026, with a sharp Q2 downturn followed by a projected recovery in the second half of the year.
• 2.Investor sentiment remains bearish, characterized by building short positions in Brent crude futures despite physical tightness in crude and product markets.

Table of Contents

• Crude oil: global inventory depletion timeline
• Oil products: global inventory depletion timeline
• Insight: the forgotten demand recovery not far away
• What has changed in the last week?
• What to watch in the next week?
• Changes in oil output from the Persian Gulf
• Exports from Persian Gulf producers
• Persian Gulf: oil production losses by country
• US oil output ticking up but gains remain small
• Strait of Hormuz vessel crossings
• Further fall in US exports of oil
• Drawdown in global oil inventories centred in America
• Global oil product inventories edge up slightly
• Crude oil at sea (global)
• Persian Gulf inventories
• US distillate and jet fuel stockpiles rise, gasoline falls
• US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
• Drawdown in Australia's petroleum inventories stabilises
• Drawdown in Singapore oil product inventories returns
• Global oil refining margins continue to rise
• Oil product prices rising amid ongoing tightness
• Global crude oil prices edge lower to pre-conflict levels
• Crude oil spot price discount stabilises
• Crude oil spreads
• Investor positioning

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