El Niño and Agriculture Markets

This report examines the potential impact of a strong 2026/27 El Niño event on New Zealand agricultural markets. It concludes that while production may face challenges, the sector's financial resilience and improved data access mitigate the risks of extreme price volatility.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Strong El Niño events historically bring hot and dry weather to New Zealand's north and east, impacting production.
• 2.Agricultural prices rarely rise during El Niño years; if they do, the increase typically lags by 12 to 18 months.
• 3.Livestock prices, particularly for lamb and mutton, are at risk of falling due to drought-induced destocking.

Table of Contents

• Dry weather, delayed price impacts
• From one global issue to the next
• Let's talk about the weather
• Price impacts? Ask me again in 2028
• On-farm responses
• Meet the team

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