China Data Preview

ANZ Research anticipates a slowdown in China's Q2 GDP to 4.5% y/y, driven by insufficient policy stimulus and cooling domestic demand. The outlook remains cautious with downward revisions to investment and retail sector forecasts.

Key Takeaways

• 1.China's Q2 GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.5% y/y due to lower fiscal intensity and a lack of policy stimulus.
• 2.Fixed asset investment (FAI) is forecasted to decline to -5.4% in June as local governments prioritize financial stabilization over new projects.
• 3.Retail sales are expected to contract by 0.5% y/y following disappointing '618' online sales performance.

Table of Contents

• China Data Preview: low GDP expected
• Data in focus
• Behind the headlines

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